University of Leeds GISRUK 2024 Summary This abstract advocates for employing clustering techniques to classify vacation rental properties active during the Covid pandemic to identify inherent patterns and behaviours . The dataset, a collaboration betwee n the ESRC funded Consumer Data Research Centre (CDRC) and AirDNA, encompasses data for over a million properties and hosts. Utili s ing K - means and K - medoids clustering techniques, we identify homogenous groups and their common characteristics. Our findings enhance comprehension of the intricacies of vacation rental evaluations and could potentially be utilised in the creation of targeted, cluster - specific policies. KEYWORDS: Covid - 19, Hospitality, Clustering, Unsupervised Machine Learnin g 1. Introduction Travel and tourism ha ve been embedded into our human experience for centuries.

The availability of downstream resources plays is critical in planning the admission of elective surgery patients. The most crucial one is inpatient beds. To ensure bed availability, hospitals may use machine learning (ML) models to predict patients' length-of-stay (LOS) in the admission planning stage. However, the real value of the LOS for each patient may differ from the predicted one, potentially making the schedule infeasible. To address such infeasibilities, it is possible to implement rescheduling strategies that take advantage of operational flexibility. For example, planners may postpone admission dates, relocate patients to different wards, or even transfer patients who are already admitted among wards. A straightforward assumption is that better LOS predictions can help reduce the impact of rescheduling. However, the training process of ML models that can make such accurate predictions can be very costly. Building on previous work that proposed simulated ML for evaluating data-driven approaches, this paper explores the relationship between LOS prediction accuracy and rescheduling flexibility across various corrective policies. Specifically, we examine the most effective patient rescheduling strategies under LOS prediction errors to prevent bed overflows while optimizing resource utilization

Making online decisions can be challenging when features are sparse and orthogonal to historical ones, especially when the optimal policy is learned through collaborative filtering. We formulate the problem as a matrix completion bandit (MCB), where the expected reward under each arm is characterized by an unknown low-rank matrix. The $\epsilon$-greedy bandit and the online gradient descent algorithm are explored. Policy learning and regret performance are studied under a specific schedule for exploration probabilities and step sizes. A faster decaying exploration probability yields smaller regret but learns the optimal policy less accurately. We investigate an online debiasing method based on inverse propensity weighting (IPW) and a general framework for online policy inference. The IPW-based estimators are asymptotically normal under mild arm-optimality conditions. Numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical findings. Our methods are applied to the San Francisco parking pricing project data, revealing intriguing discoveries and outperforming the benchmark policy.

Recent advances in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) have opened up vast application prospects, including swarm control of drones, collaborative manipulation by robotic arms, and multi-target encirclement. However, potential security threats during the MARL deployment need more attention and thorough investigation. Recent researches reveal that an attacker can rapidly exploit the victim's vulnerabilities and generate adversarial policies, leading to the victim's failure in specific tasks. For example, reducing the winning rate of a superhuman-level Go AI to around 20%. They predominantly focus on two-player competitive environments, assuming attackers possess complete global state observation. In this study, we unveil, for the first time, the capability of attackers to generate adversarial policies even when restricted to partial observations of the victims in multi-agent competitive environments. Specifically, we propose a novel black-box attack (SUB-PLAY), which incorporates the concept of constructing multiple subgames to mitigate the impact of partial observability and suggests the sharing of transitions among subpolicies to improve the exploitative ability of attackers. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of SUB-PLAY under three typical partial observability limitations. Visualization results indicate that adversarial policies induce significantly different activations of the victims' policy networks. Furthermore, we evaluate three potential defenses aimed at exploring ways to mitigate security threats posed by adversarial policies, providing constructive recommendations for deploying MARL in competitive environments.

Truck parking on freight corridors faces various challenges, such as insufficient parking spaces and compliance with Hour-of-Service (HOS) regulations. These constraints often result in unauthorized parking practices, causing safety concerns. To enhance the safety of freight operations, providing accurate parking usage prediction proves to be a cost-effective solution. Despite the existing research demonstrating satisfactory accuracy for predicting individual truck parking site usage, few approaches have been proposed for predicting usage with spatial dependencies of multiple truck parking sites. We present the Regional Temporal Graph Neural Network (RegT-GCN) as a predictive framework for assessing parking usage across the entire state to provide better truck parking information and mitigate unauthorized parking. The framework leverages the topological structures of truck parking site distributions and historical parking data to predict occupancy rates across a state. To achieve this, we introduce a Regional Decomposition approach, which effectively captures the geographical characteristics. We also introduce the spatial module working efficiently with the temporal module. Evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model surpasses other baseline models, improving the performance by more than $20\%$ compared with the original model. The proposed model allows truck parking sites' percipience of the topological structures and provides higher performance.

Fine-grained population maps are needed in several domains, like urban planning, environmental monitoring, public health, and humanitarian operations. Unfortunately, in many countries only aggregate census counts over large spatial units are collected, moreover, these are not always up-to-date. We present POMELO, a deep learning model that employs coarse census counts and open geodata to estimate fine-grained population maps with 100m ground sampling distance. Moreover, the model can also estimate population numbers when no census counts at all are available, by generalizing across countries. In a series of experiments for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the maps produced with POMELOare in good agreement with the most detailed available reference counts: disaggregation of coarse census counts reaches R2 values of 85-89%; unconstrained prediction in the absence of any counts reaches 48-69%.

Many U.S. metropolitan cities are notorious for their severe shortage of parking spots. To this end, we present a proactive prediction-driven optimization framework to dynamically adjust parking prices. We use state-of-the-art deep learning technologies such as neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) to design our future parking occupancy rate prediction model given historical occupancy rates and price information. Owing to the continuous and bijective characteristics of NODEs, in addition, we design a one-shot price optimization method given a pre-trained prediction model, which requires only one iteration to find the optimal solution. In other words, we optimize the price input to the pre-trained prediction model to achieve targeted occupancy rates in the parking blocks. We conduct experiments with the data collected in San Francisco and Seattle for years. Our prediction model shows the best accuracy in comparison with various temporal or spatio-temporal forecasting models. Our one-shot optimization method greatly outperforms other black-box and white-box search methods in terms of the search time and always returns the optimal price solution.

White people who host rental properties on Airbnb earn significantly more per year than Black hosts, but a "race blind" pricing algorithm could help close that income gap, new research shows. Black hosts who rely on Airbnb's algorithm to set enticing prices instead of manually choosing rates increase their occupancy rates significantly, bringing their earnings more in line with the higher rental incomes of white hosts, according to a study coauthored by Shunyuan Zhang, an assistant professor in the Marketing Unit at Harvard Business School. Zhang's findings come at a critical time for the travel industry. People eager to shake off their COVID-19 cabin fever are gearing up to take vacations, raising Airbnb bookings by 52 percent last quarter from a year earlier. Harnessing artificial intelligence to reduce racial economic disparities might help more property owners benefit from pent-up lodging demand.

Public road authorities and private mobility service providers need information derived from the current and predicted traffic states to act upon the daily urban system and its spatial and temporal dynamics. In this research, a real-time parking area state (occupancy, in- and outflux) prediction model (up to 60 minutes ahead) has been developed using publicly available historic and real time data sources. Based on a case study in a real-life scenario in the city of Arnhem, a Neural Network-based approach outperforms a Random Forest-based one on all assessed performance measures, although the differences are small. Both are outperforming a naive seasonal random walk model. Although the performance degrades with increasing prediction horizon, the model shows a performance gain of over 150% at a prediction horizon of 60 minutes compared with the naive model. Furthermore, it is shown that predicting the in- and outflux is a far more difficult task (i.e. performance gains of 30%) which needs more training data, not based exclusively on occupancy rate. However, the performance of predicting in- and outflux is less sensitive to the prediction horizon. In addition, it is shown that real-time information of current occupancy rate is the independent variable with the highest contribution to the performance, although time, traffic flow and weather variables also deliver a significant contribution. During real-time deployment, the model performs three times better than the naive model on average. As a result, it can provide valuable information for proactive traffic management as well as mobility service providers.

Recurrent neural networks are strong dynamic systems, but they are very sensitive to their hyper-parameter configuration. Moreover, training properly a recurrent neural network is a tough task, therefore selecting an appropriate configuration is critical. There have been proposed varied strategies to tackle this issue, however most of them are still impractical because of the time/resources needed. In this study, we propose a low computational cost model to evaluate the expected performance of a given architecture based on the distribution of the error of random samples.